Provo, one of three Utah cities that in 2003 had a population of more than 100,000, has dropped from the U.S. Census Bureau's 2004 list of "large cities." That means Salt Lake City and West Valley City remain Utah's only two cities with populations greater than 100,000, according to new census population estimates. 

Provo officials, however, believe the census data are wrong — and they plan on letting census officials know that they beg to differ.

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Meanwhile, smaller Utah cities — many in southwestern Salt Lake County or northwestern Utah County — continued to drive much of the population growth along the Wasatch Front from July 1, 2003, to July 1, 2004.

Southwestern Utah is also seeing strong growth, with an influx of 3,256 individuals into St. George and 1,003 into the nearby city of Washington.

With a July 1, 2004, estimated population of 99,624, Provo was the nation's only large city that fell below 100,000 last year, census spokesman Robert Bernstein said.

However, Provo officials are considering a challenge to the Census Bureau's population estimate, saying they project a population of 115,000 for July 1, 2005.

"I don't know if somebody hit the wrong key or needs their glasses wiped," Provo Mayor Lewis Billings said of the census estimate. "We have successfully challenged the census numbers previously, and it looks like we'll be doing that again. We feel comfortable we'll fall between 110,000 and 115,000."

Robert Spendlove, manager of demographic and economic analysis for the Governor's Office of Planning and Budget, said that until the 2010 U.S. Census, it won't be known exactly how many people live in any of Utah's cities, including Provo.

"Whether or not Provo . . . is actually dropping in population right now, no one knows for sure," he said. "You could say the population of Provo, without a doubt, is growing at a much slower rate than surrounding areas."

Spendlove said, for the most part, the census trends aren't a surprise.

"What we're seeing is that the older, more established cities are experiencing slower population growth," he said. "Areas that 10 to 15 years ago were not even bedroom communities . . . are becoming new bedroom communities or growth centers."

Salt Lake City, with a 2004 estimated population of 178,605, saw a slight population decline. West Valley City grew by slightly more than 1 percent to an estimated 112,678.

Meanwhile, Herriman in southwestern Salt Lake County, which incorporated in 1999, is booming. Its population of about 1,500, according to the 2000 estimates base, has grown by more than 400 percent to an estimated 7,826 — an average growth rate of 50 percent per year.

Two northwestern Utah County cities that incorporated in the 1990s, Saratoga Springs and Eagle Mountain, are also among the state's fastest-growing cities.

With an addition of 4,846 people, West Jordan, with a total population estimated at 89,011, had the most overall population growth.

St. George, which grew by 3,256 people to an estimated 59,780, was second in growth, followed by Lehi, which gained 2,583 in one year — a growth rate of 11.2 percent to 25,665.

The Census Bureau's population estimates are used for distribution of road funds and sales tax for communities and are also tied to federal grants, Spendlove said.

Provo Mayor Billings expressed concern that if Provo's population is underestimated, it could force the city to raise taxes for residents.

"We have been closely watching the methods the Census Bureau uses because the Census Bureau (numbers) are coming in lower than where we think the cities should be and what the cities think they should be," Spendlove said.

Spendlove said four of the six Utah cities that produced evidence to successfully challenge their 2003 estimates — Genola, Highland, Pleasant Grove and Orem — are in Utah County.

Greg Harper, demographer for the U.S. Census Bureau, said all the places in a county have to add up to the county's population total. In most counties, the differences between the census' methods of estimation aren't as great as they are in Utah County, he said.

"In Utah County, a large number of places are challenging; that is unusual," Harper said.

Harper said some reasons for the differences could be changes in vacancy rates or population per housing unit, which the Census Bureau estimates using the 2000 Census.

While Provo is concerned about its estimate, Salt Lake City doesn't seem worried, nor does Ogden, which showed a 2004 population of about 78,500 — virtually unchanged from the previous year.

Ogden Mayor Matthew Godfrey said he wouldn't describe his city's growth as "stagnant."

Ogden has recently added about 350 downtown units, and he expects that to double or triple over the next few years, he said.

"We're introducing new housing to an urban center that hasn't had new housing, literally, in a hundred years," he said. "We've got good momentum here in downtown. It's a good place to live."

Neil Olsen, principal planner for Salt Lake City's Planning Division, said, "I don't think anyone here is wringing their hands."

He said the suburban growth is a function of economy and mortgage rates, noting that bigger houses on larger lots may be available in some suburban cities. He noted Salt Lake City has programs to help first-time homebuyers.

"We're doing a lot of things with economic development to attract people to live in the city," he said. "People want to live downtown. . . . The quality of life is key here, not the number of people."

Dale Carpenter, director of business and economic development in Salt Lake County, said he's optimistic about Salt Lake County's growth, urban and suburban.

"There seems to be an appetite for new homes and town homes, certainly around the Day Break area and certainly around Herriman," he said. "I'm very excited about the economic development of Salt Lake County."

He noted The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints plans for a $500,000 renovation of two downtown malls, saying "Salt Lake's central district is still viable."

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By Deborah Bulkeley and Tad Walch
Deseret Morning News

http://deseretnews.com/dn/print/1,1442,600145199,00.html